The latest on the presidential horse race.

Paul, Bush, Rubio All Drop in National Polls as Christie Strengthens Lead

CNN, 11/18-11/20

  • Christie: 24
  • Paul: 15
  • Cruz: 11
  • Ryan: 11
  • Rubio: 10
  • Bush: 5

A new CNN poll shows that Chris Christie has taken a strong 9 percent lead in the national Republican presidential nomination race while the growing field of potential GOP alternatives continues to water down each others’ support.

In a national poll conducted between November 18 and November 20, 24 percent of registered Republican voters said they would vote for New Jersey Governor Chris Christie in the 2016 GOP primary, a 2 percent bump from the last poll taken earlier in November. In October, Christie was polling at just 16 percent nationally and in September he was at around 13 percent. The GOP frontrunner continues to gain momentum while the other candidates have failed to grow their support base.

Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, who had been tied with Christie or even leading in most of the early polls, came in second with just 15 percent of the vote. Earlier in November, a Rasmussen poll showed Paul down just 22-20 to Christie. In October, the two were in a 16-16 tie and in September Paul led Christie 17-13.

Fellow Tea Partier and Texas Senator Ted Cruz finished in a third place tie with Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan with 11 percent. This is right around where both have been polling over the last few national polls.

Florida Senator Marco Rubio dropped off significantly, garnering just 10 percent of the vote after seeing his support swell to 16 percent in a poll taken earlier in November. Fellow Floridian and former governor of the Sunshine State Jeb Bush also fell off significantly, dropping from 11-14 points in recent polls to just 5 percent.

Not only is Christie enjoying the largest lead he’s seen, he’s getting more conservative support. Among self-identified conservatives, 18 percent said they would vote for Christie, compared to 13 percent for Ted Cruz and Rand Paul and 11 percent for Paul Ryan and Marco Rubio. Among all of the various demographics surveyed, Christie leads in just about every one of them. The Jersey governor is the preeminent choice among men, women, all age groups, people earning $50K+, and both college graduates and people who never attended college.

(Image courtesy of Gage Skidmore)