The latest on the presidential horse race.

Iowa 2016: Christie Leads Clinton, Clinton Leads Everyone Else

Harpers 11/23-11/24

  • Clinton: 38, Christie: 43
  • Clinton: 46, Ryan: 43
  • Clinton: 45, Rubio: 41
  • Clinton: 47, Paul: 41
  • Clinton: 47, Cruz: 40

In a scenario that has played out similarly in other swing states, a new Harpers poll has found that New Jersey Governor Chris Christie leads Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton in a hypothetical 2016 matchup in Iowa while Clinton leads all other potential Republican opponents.

The poll, conducted between November 23 and November 24, surveyed 985 likely Iowa voters and found that GOP frontrunner Chris Christie would get 43 percent of the vote against Hillary Clinton while the former First Lady would only garner 38 percent. Nearly 20 percent of voters were undecided or would not vote for either candidate, however, so there are still many votes to be won.

This is big news for Christie who has been trending up consistently. In dueling polls conducted in July, a Quinnipiac poll found a 41-41 tie between the two frontrunners while a Public Policy Polling (PPP) survey showed Clinton with a significant lead.

Like the other swing states, however, the other GOP candidates would all lose to Hillary in a hypothetical 2016 matchup. Congressman Paul Ryan from the neighboring state of Wisconsin came in the closest with 43 percent of the vote to Clinton’s 46. That’s an improvement over his support back in July when a PPP poll showed him trailing Hillary 49-40.

Florida Senator Marco Rubio would lose the hypothetical 2016 contest 45-41. Like Ryan, that’s a significant improvement over his 12 point deficit back in July and 11 point deficit in May.

The Tea Party duo of Rand Paul and Ted Cruz find themselves trailing by the largest margins, as has been the case in most swing states. Hillary leads Kentucky Senator Rand Paul by a margin of 47-41 while Cruz trails by a margin of 47-40. The PPP poll in July showed Hillary with an 11 point lead on Paul, so he is trending up against Clinton just like the other candidates which can’t be good news for Hillary’s camp.

The poll also confirmed another landslide lead for Hillary in the Iowa Democratic caucus as the former Secretary of State leads the pack with 71 percent of the vote. Joe Biden came in second with just 11 percent while not a single other candidate garnered more than 1 percent of the vote.

(Image courtesy of Gage Skidmore)