The latest on the presidential horse race.

Hillary Clinton Much Less Likely to Win 2016 Election Than First Thought

Quinnipiac, 11/18-11/23
Head-to-Head National Election

  • Clinton: 43
  • Christie: 42
  • Clinton: 46
  • Ryan: 42
  • Clinton: 46
  • Paul: 41
  • Clinton: 46
  • Bush: 41
  • Clinton: 46
  • Huckabee: 41
  • Clinton: 48
  • Cruz: 37

Prior to the 2014 midterms, most of the head-to-head national election polls we saw showed presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton leading the top Republican candidates by huge margins. Now, a new Quinnipiac poll has found that the former Secretary of State is now the overwhelming favorite we once thought.

The poll, conducted between November 18 and November 23, found that Clinton leads New Jersey Governor Chris Christie by just a single point while the other top candidates are dangerously close.

Clinton leads Christie by a margin of 43-42 after polls back in September showed her leading by as much as 9-10 percent.

Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan, a dark horse in the 2016 race, trails the former First Lady by just 4 percent, a 46-42 margin. The last poll to look at a hypothetical head-to-head between the two possible candidates was done all the way back in April and found Ryan trailing by 8 percent.

The other major candidates are also all within striking distance of Hillary.

Kentucky Senator Rand Paul trails the former New York Senator by a margin of 46-41. Back in the summer and early fall, Paul trailed Clinton by around 9-11 percent.

Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush trails Hillary by the same 46-41 margin after falling behind by 11-13 percent in June-September.

Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee also trails Clinton by the same 46-41 margin. This hypothetical matchup hasn’t been polled since April when Huckabee was 13 points back of the Democratic frontrunner.

Only Texas Senator Ted Cruz is still severely lagging, partly because of his divisive nature but also his low name recognition. Cruz trails Clinton by a 48-37 margin, not too different from the 13-point gap we saw between the two candidates in June.