The latest on the presidential horse race.

Hillary Clinton Leads All GOP Candidates in Florida

Quinnipiac, 11/12-11/17

  • Clinton: 47, Bush: 45
  • Clinton: 45, Christie: 41
  • Clinton: 51, Paul: 41
  • Clinton: 50, Rubio: 43
  • Clinton: 50, Ryan: 42
  • Clinton: 52, Cruz: 36

According to a new Quinnipiac poll, former Secretary of State and First Lady Hillary Clinton leads every major potential Republican candidate in the key swing state of Florida. In every hypothetical matchup, Hillary owns a solid lead and has double-digit leads against Tea Party candidates Ted Cruz and Rand Paul.

Last week, we saw that Florida politicians had a clear home field advantage in the Sunshine State with former Governor Jeb Bush and current Senator Marco Rubio leading the pack in the GOP primary race. Despite strong Republican backing, both candidates would lose Florida and its 29 electoral votes to the Democratic frontrunner.

In a matchup against Jeb Bush, Clinton would win 47-45. This is down from her advantage in early polling as Clinton had a seven-point lead in June and a double-digit lead in March. While Senator Rubio is second in Republican primary voting, the GOP support isn’t helping much as Clinton leads him in a hypothetical matchup 50-43. That number is also down, however, as Hillary owned a double-digit lead over Rubio in polls taken in March and June.

Outside of Bush, Hillary’s toughest matchup would be against New Jersey Governor Chris Christie. Clinton leads Christie in Florida by a margin of 45-41, right around what we have seen in most states. Paul Ryan, who was Mitt Romney’s ticket mate in 2012, finds himself trailing Clinton 50-42.

The Tea Party candidates do not have much support in Florida. Texas Senator Ted Cruz and Kentucky Senator Rand Paul combined for only 21 percent in the Republican primary poll, less than Jeb Bush’s 22 percent alone. Against Clinton, they don’t seem to stand a chance.

Rand Paul, the son of perennial presidential candidate Ron Paul, would lose to Clinton 51-41 in a hypothetical 2016 matchup. Ted Cruz had the least support among all major GOP candidates in the poll and would lose to Clinton in a landslide, 52-36.

Florida is the biggest swing state and swings often. The state went for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 but had voted for George Bush in 2004 and (controversially) in 2000. Bill Clinton won the state in 1996 but lost the Sunshine State to George H.W. Bush in 1992.

(Image courtesy of Roger H. Goun)