The latest on the presidential horse race.

Christie Leads All GOP Candidates, Hillary in Pennsylvania

PPP 11/22-11/25


  • Clinton: 44, Christie: 48
  • Clinton: 51, Paul: 43
  • Clinton: 48, Bush: 44
  • Clinton: 53, Cruz: 41

In a new poll released by Public Policy Polling, Chris Christie leads Hillary Clinton by four-points in the key swing state of Pennsylvania but Clinton would handedly defeat any other potential Republican candidate.

The poll, taken between November 22 and November 25, sampled 693 registered Pennsylvania voters. In a hypothetical matchup, Chris Christie, Governor of neighboring New Jersey, would defeat the former Secretary of State by a margin of 48 to 44, although 8 percent are still undecided. This is a big reversal from the early polling in Pennsylvania, done all the way back in March, when Hillary led Christie in the Keystone State by a 47-42 margin. This is clearly another sign of Christie’s growing popularity, especially among moderate voters.

Outside of Christie, Pennsylvania isn’t crazy about their other Republican options. The poll found that Hillary leads Kentucky Senator Rand Paul by a margin of 51 to 43. It’s a sizeable lead but still down from her 15 point advantage in an earlier poll back in June.

Texas Senator Ted Cruz wouldn’t fair any better as Clinton leads him 53 to 41. Clearly Pennsylvania, like most swing states, isn’t too thrilled about the Tea Party candidates. By comparison, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, considered a moderate in the modern Republican landscape, only trails Clinton by 4 percent with 8 percent undecided.

Interestingly, much of Christie’s strength in Pennsylvania is the result of strong support from voters who voted for Barack Obama in 2012. Only 83 percent of 2012 Obama voters would vote for Hillary while 12 percent would vote for Christie and 5 percent remain undecided. Christie would also get 87 percent of 2012 Romney voters while Hillary would get just 6 percent and 7 percent remain undecided.

By comparison, Jeb Bush would only get 6 percent of 2012 Obama voters while Ted Cruz would get just 3 percent and Rand Paul would get 2 percent.

Among moderate voters, 48 percent would vote for Hillary while 39 percent would vote for Christie with 13 percent still undecided. By comparison, Bush would only get 28 percent of the moderate vote and Cruz and Paul are slightly below even that.

(Image courtesy of Gage Skidmore)