The latest on the presidential horse race.

2016: Christie Would Beat Cuomo But Be Smashed By Hillary in NY

Siena, 11/18, New York:

  • Christie: 47, Cuomo: 42
  • Christie: 40, Clinton: 56

In a shocking new poll that further suggests the strength of a potential Chris Christie candidacy in 2016, a Siena poll released on Monday shows that the Republican New Jersey governor would defeat Democratic New York Governor Andrew Cuomo by a margin of 47-42 in New York. On the other hand, New Yorkers still favor Hillary Clinton by a large margin over the Jersey moderate.

What’s striking about the poll is that voters overwhelmingly support Cuomo but favor Christie. The poll shows Cuomo drawing a 61 percent favorable rating and leading any potential 2016 gubernatorial challenger by a healthy 30+ point lead. Despite the favorablility, traditionally blue New Yorkers still prefer Christie.

The poll clearly shows that Chris Christie, an nontraditional Republican candidate, could change the entire electoral map in 2016. He wouldn’t be able to beat Hillary Clinton on her home turf but he could certainly draw far more support in states not as heavily Democratic as New York than Republican candidates in recent elections. Democrats have done well in moderate northeastern states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Maine, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin but Christie could put all of those states in play, including his home state of New Jersey which has voted Democratic in every presidential election since Ronald Reagan.

Another striking point in the poll is how much more support Hillary Clinton draws than Cuomo, another fellow potential candidate with solid support. In a general election, Clinton would draw 14 percent more than Cuomo in a race against Christie, another stark reminder of Hillary’s strength on the national stage. Hillary currently leads all Democratic primary polls by at least 50 percent, coming in well ahead of Cuomo, Joe Biden, and Elizabeth Warren.

Two recent polls found Hillary leading Christie in a national matchup 44-34 and 49-36. Hillary even leads Christie in his home state of New Jersey by a small 48-44 margin. At the same time, while Clinton is the odds-on favorite to win the nomination, Republicans are wavering on Christie. According to NBC, only 32 percent of Republicans support Christie for the GOP nomination with 31 percent opposed and the others undecided.

(Image courtesy of Bob Jagendorf)