The latest on the presidential horse race.

For the First Time in the Massachusetts Governor Race, Baker Takes a Slim Lead

Boston Globe, 6/27 – 8/26

Massachusetts Governor

  • Charlie Baker – Republican – 38%
  • Martha Coakley – Democrat – 37%

The Boston Globe has released a poll that shows Republican Charlie Baker in the lead over Democrat Martha Coakley, for the first time in the Massachusetts Governor race. The poll asked 605 voters who they would vote for if the election were to occur today. 38% of voters said that they would vote for Baker while 37% sided with Coakley. A CBS News / NYT / YouGov poll from early July had Coakley at a +15 lead and a Mass Insight / Opinion Dynamics poll from late July had her at a +3.

Of the 605 voters, 197 identified as Democrats, 106 as Republicans, and 302 as independent. In terms of gender, women tend to favor Coakley while men side with Baker. Statistically, 49% of women said they would vote for Coakley and 29% for Baker, while 44% of men said they would vote Baker and only 29% for Coakley.

The election is far from decided, both candidates still have to win their individual primaries on September 9th before they can move onto a general election. Both candidates hold a commanding lead over their opposition. However, 48% of the voters for Coakley’s opposition, Democrat Steve Grossman, said that they would vote for Baker if Grossman was to be eliminated. If she wants to gain the upper hand, she will need to convince Grossman’s voters that she is the right candidate and that she has a better platform than Baker.

Amongst her own voters, 51% of them see her as a favorable candidate and 40% see her as unfavorable. What does this mean? 91% of voters recognize Coakley’s name and have formed an opinion about her. If Baker can capitalize on the divide amongst the Democrats, he may be able to steal this election.

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